Will S’pore have a GE in September? Possible but window narrowing, analysts say

Source: Straits Times
Article Date: 05 Jun 2024
Author: Tham Yuen-C

First step of appointing committee that reviews electoral boundaries yet to be taken.

Speculation has been rife that the next general election may be called as early as September, but the first step to the polls has not been taken, with the committee that sets out the battleground still not formed.

As at June 3, the Electoral Boundaries Review Committee (EBRC) had not been convened, said the Elections Department (ELD) in response to a query from The Straits Times.

The move has typically been seen as the surest signal that an election is in the offing.

There has been chatter that an election could be called in 2024 ever since Senior Minister Lee Hsien Loong passed the baton to Prime Minister Lawrence Wong on May 15.

In particular, the timeline of the handover has stoked predictions of a possible September election, as it means that PM Wong would have the platform of the National Day Rally in August – one of the major political speeches of the year – where he can lay out his vision and rally the people.

If an election is to be held in 2024, September also provides a window before the busy exam period for schools, which are often used as nomination centres and polling centres, and teachers, who are usually recruited as polling agents. The school holiday runs from Aug 31 to Sept 8 in 2024.

All this has prompted questions about whether a September election is imminent, and there is even a WhatsApp message circulating with claims that the poll will be held on Sept 6.

While political analysts are not ruling out September – they believe there is still time for the EBRC to review boundaries in time for an election then – they also note that the window is narrowing.

Although there is no law mandating the committee’s formation, Singapore’s prime ministers have, since independence in 1965, appointed it to review electoral boundaries before the polls.

The committee, typically made up of civil servants from the Singapore Land Authority, Housing Board, Department of Statistics and ELD, is tasked with drawing up group representation constituencies and single-member constituencies based on terms of reference set out by the prime minister.

In recent decades it has been chaired by the Cabinet secretary, who heads the team providing administrative support to the Cabinet, and has comprised five members.

During SM Lee’s tenure as prime minister, the committee’s formation had always been announced. However, this was not the practice historically and there is no requirement for prime ministers to announce its formation.

Under prime ministers Lee Kuan Yew and Goh Chok Tong, the fact that the committee had been set up was kept under wraps until its report was released.

The committee took between two and seven months to do its work ahead of the past four general elections in 2006, 2011, 2015 and 2020 being called.

There is no minimum time prescribed for the committee to complete its work, and analysts say it is technically possible for the committee to put out its report for a September election, if the relevant data it needs, such as population shifts, are already available.

Singapore last updated its voter rolls in July 2023, two months before the Presidential Election that year. Recently, Prime Minister Lawrence Wong directed that the Registers of Electors be revised before July 31, 2024.

These updates ensure the committee has the latest population numbers to work with when deliberating on the boundaries of the constituencies.

National University of Singapore (NUS) Associate Professor of Sociology Tan Ern Ser said: “If the relevant data is already available, I don’t see why the electoral map can’t be ready by end-July, if the EBRC is convened by early June.”

Former MP Inderjit Singh reckons the committee can even complete its task within as short a time as a month.

However, Singapore Management University (SMU) Associate Professor of Law Eugene Tan said the committee’s terms of reference could affect how long it needs to do its work.

For instance, if PM Wong directs that the average size of GRCs for the next general election be significantly smaller than what it was in 2020, the committee might need more time, said Prof Tan.

He added: “Should a September 2024 (general election) be held, the EBRC could be convened this month or July, assuming it can complete its work in four to eight weeks.”

Once the electoral divisions are mapped out, the committee submits its report to the prime minister, who then has to accept the report and send it to Parliament. The changes are then gazetted, and this is when political parties and the public come to know of the new electoral boundaries.

In past elections, prime ministers have waited between 17 days and six months from the release of the report to Polling Day. Under Mr Lee Hsien Loong, this time lag ranged from 49 to 119 days.

Citing examples of past elections when Parliament was dissolved just days after the committee’s report was published – in 2001 it was one day, and in 1991 it was six days – Mr Singh said there was “every possibility of a snap election being called (in September)”.

NUS’ Prof Tan also reckons PM Wong and his fourth-generation team of political leaders would want to secure their own mandate, and the legitimacy that comes with it, as soon as possible.

To this end, a September election makes sense as it follows a month of events in August – such as National Day on Aug 9 and the National Day Rally later in the month – aimed at “strengthening our sense of being a nation, having a common purpose, (and keeping) Singapore flying high, if not higher”, he said.

“In short, the team has already been around. It is not on the runway, it is already flying, with sufficient tailwinds,” he added.

Meanwhile, SMU’s Prof Tan said that while it is “within the realm of possibility” to convene the committee in the next few weeks and for the election to be held in September, he does not think this is on the cards.

“I would be surprised if a (general election) is held this year. Unless the external environment deteriorates rapidly in the rest of this year, a (general election) is more likely after Budget 2025,” he added.

He noted that a big unknown is how conflicts around the world might affect the global and Singapore economies and security situation.

PM Wong, who is also Finance Minister, will deliver the Budget statement, which usually happens in February.

The decision on when to call an election also hinges on other factors, said SMU’s Prof Tan, such as “when is the best time for the People’s Action Party’s (PAP) report card to be placed before voters”, and whether the ruling party is ready for an electoral battle.

This means turning down the heat on hot-button issues such as cost of living, housing affordability and job insecurities, among other things, as well as making sure that the party has the best slate possible, he added.

All this will affect the public mood, he noted.

“So determining when the public mood is most favourable to the PAP will shape the decision of when to go to the polls.”

He added: “PM Wong is not, and should not be, in a hurry to seek a mandate. Rather, he needs time to make a strong case for a strong mandate.

“He needs time to put flesh on his vision of Singapore under his premiership and will seek to use the series of key platforms to articulate his vision, get Singaporeans enthused, even excited.”