How might S’pore’s electoral boundaries be redrawn, as several constituencies see a jump in voter numbers?

Five constituencies have seen their voter numbers increase by more than 10,000 since the 2020 General Election, the latest figures from Singapore’s updated voter rolls show.

They are Pasir Ris-Punggol, Sembawang and Tampines GRCs, and the two single-seat wards of Hong Kah North and Potong Pasir.

Hong Kah North SMC now has 38,883 voters, a 65.33 per cent increase from 23,519 in 2020. One contributing factor is the growing development of Tengah New Town. The keys to 2,908 of the 3,753 units in the first three Build-To-Order (BTO) projects in Tengah had been collected by Jan 18, the Housing Board said earlier in 2024.

There are another 20 BTO projects still under construction in Tengah. From the third quarter of 2024 to the fourth quarter of 2027, about 19,100 units will be delivered progressively to flat buyers, HDB added.

Potong Pasir registered a 68.38 per cent increase from 18,551 to 31,236 voters, largely due to the influx of voters from Bidadari estate.

The three GRCs – Pasir Ris-Punggol, Sembawang and Tampines – each saw increases of about 11 per cent since 2020. Pasir Ris-Punggol now has 180,185 voters, while Sembawang has 155,704, and Tampines, 164,339.

The latest figures are stated in a written parliamentary reply by Education Minister Chan Chun Sing on July 2. The reply detailed the number of voters in each of the 17 GRCs and 14 SMCs as at June 1, 2024.

Among them, voter numbers rose in 13 GRCs and seven SMCs. Four GRCs – Aljunied, Bishan-Toa Payoh, Jalan Besar and Marine Parade – and seven SMCs saw voter numbers shrink.

The largest GRC by number of voters is now Ang Mo Kio, while the smallest is Bishan-Toa Payoh. Meanwhile, the largest single-seat ward is Hong Kah North, while the smallest is Yuhua.

Mr Chan, who is also Minister-in-charge of the Public Service, said the Electoral Boundaries Review Committee (EBRC) has not been convened.

The EBRC determines electoral boundaries for elections, taking into account population shifts and new housing developments since the last boundary delineation exercise.

For the 2020 General Election, the committee worked on a range of 20,000 to 38,000 electors per MP. This was the approach taken by previous EBRCs, and meant that the number of voters in SMCs should fall within this range.

Four-member GRCs should have between 80,000 and 152,000 voters, while five-member GRCs should have between 100,000 and 190,000 voters.

This means the number of voters in Hong Kah North has exceeded the upper limit of 38,000 for an SMC.

Updated figures for the other four constituencies that have seen significant increases in voter numbers are still within the upper limits set by the previous EBRC.

Changes expected in west and north-east

The Straits Times spoke to political observers on how these demographic changes might affect electoral boundaries ahead of the upcoming general election, which must be held by November 2025.

Singapore Management University (SMU) law don and former Nominated MP Eugene Tan believes that new HDB estates in areas like Tengah and Punggol mean there will be more boundary changes in the western and north-eastern parts of Singapore. 

There could also be adjustments in other areas, such as Bidadari, where development is taking place.

“Generally speaking, where an electoral division has seen relatively significant changes in the size of its electorate, the EBRC will determine if boundary changes are needed,” he said. 

Political observer and former MP Inderjit Singh sees changes for the west due to the jump in voter numbers in Hong Kah North, with possible shifts in the boundaries of Jurong GRC and West Coast GRC as a result.

West Coast GRC saw the exit of former transport minister S. Iswaran due to his ongoing corruption case, which is now before the courts. In 2020, the People’s Action Party team there came out on top with 51.69 per cent of the vote in a closely fought contest against the Progress Singapore Party, led by former PAP MP Tan Cheng Bock.

Mr Singh believes Marine Parade GRC – which saw the resignation of former Speaker of Parliament Tan Chuan-Jin – may absorb parts of Potong Pasir. There will also likely be changes to the boundaries of Tampines, Pasir Ris-Punggol and East Coast GRCs, given that Tampines and Pasir Ris-Punggol GRCs, as well as Mountbatten SMC, have grown in voter size.

Sengkang GRC has also grown – from 117,546 to 124,773 voters – making it the largest four-member GRC now. It is bigger than the smallest five-member GRC of East Coast, which has 121,786 voters.

For the 2020 General Election, the EBRC was mindful that GRCs with fewer MPs should not have more electors than GRCs with more MPs, leading some observers to believe that changes to East Coast GRC are likely too.

More GRCs and SMCs

In 2016, then Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong called for smaller GRCs and more SMCs.

He said smaller GRCs foster a closer connection between the MPs and residents. SMCs also give the MP direct responsibility for everything that happens in the constituency.

Dr Mustafa Izzuddin, a senior international affairs analyst at Solaris Strategies Singapore, said Singapore may see an increase in the number of constituencies due to the larger voting population.

“There is a likelihood that the 17 GRCs may increase to 18, as has been the trend in the past four elections,” he said.

Dr Mustafa said there may be more SMCs in the next election, given how the number of such constituencies has progressively increased from nine in 2006 to 14 in 2020. 

Associate Professor Tan of SMU agrees that there will be one or more additional SMCs in the next general election.

Dr Tan Ern Ser, adjunct principal research fellow and academic adviser to the IPS Social Lab, believes newer estates like Bidadari and Tengah will likely be part of GRCs and not form new single-seat wards. This is to ensure that each constituency has a diverse population, reflecting more or less a microcosm of Singapore society.

Agreeing, Mr Singh said the chances of these new areas becoming SMCs are small. Meanwhile, the divisions where there are good incumbent MPs may be carved off to become SMCs, he said.

Potong Pasir MP Sitoh Yih Pin said: “The number of residents in Potong Pasir SMC has grown with the new Bidadari estate. At GE2020, we also welcomed residents from Joo Seng estate, which was my childhood home.” 

He said he is focused on improving the living environment and quality of life for residents.

“In Potong Pasir, our focus remains solely on serving our residents... We remain a tightly knit community with a strong and unique kampung spirit.”

Smaller GRCs

Prof Tan noted that the average size of a GRC has been decreasing over the years, and believes there is room for GRCs to become incrementally smaller. 

Singapore removed six-member GRCs in 2020, when the mammoth six-member Ang Mo Kio and Pasir Ris-Punggol GRCs became five-member constituencies.

“Six-member GRCs may well be a footnote in local electoral history,” he said. “There will probably still be five-member GRCs in the next GE.”

NUS associate professor of political science Chong Ja Ian said Singapore may see more SMCs and smaller GRCs, and some of the larger GRCs may be adjusted.

“In essence, more SMCs and smaller GRCs may strain the opposition parties’ more limited resources, especially in campaigning,” he said. “More smaller GRCs may also put pressure on opposition parties to find more minority candidates.”

Mr Singh believes large GRCs, like Ang Mo Kio, Pasir Ris-Punggol and Jurong, will remain large, but there is a case for some five-member GRCs to become four-member GRCs, and Singapore may see fewer five-member ones.

“It is easier for the MPs in smaller GRCs to coordinate things better and also connect with the ground better too, making it more personal.”

Whatever the changes, NUS associate professor Bilveer Singh, a political scientist, said voters are discerning, and the election result will be determined by who the PAP and opposition contestants are, as well as the issues they are concerned about.

“Where the changes take place, or more or fewer GRCs and SMCs, are of less importance,” he said.

Source: Straits Times © SPH Media Limited. Permission required for reproduction.

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